Simulation of Economic Activity Concentration in Southern Poland with Use of the Orion Model

Abstract

The research brings up the issue of formation of economic activity concentration in southern Poland, namely in six provinces: dolnośląskie, opolskie, śląskie, świętokrzyskie, małopolskie and podkarpackie. The main means of research is the use of Orion decision-simulation model in the process of creation of a comprehensive economic system of the region, capable of simulating experimental changes according to predefined assumptions. The work methodology and main assumptions, related mainly to the model calibration, adopt - whenever possible - the most objective approach, unaltered by any specific visions of development or local and regional authorities’ interventionism aimed at the plans of economic development. It assumes the continuity of previous processes of development of particular economic activities. The work possesses a strong prognostic background, projecting the results as a prediction for the year 2030. Therefore, the result comprises a predicted distribution of activities; more precisely, a model state, which the prepared economic system aims to achieve. This provides a basis to formulate appropriate conclusions, according to the adopted methodology of model parameterization and a certain degree of generalization of issues concerning complex economic mechanisms that direct and restrict interpretative possibilities.