External shocks and international trade in services, with particular emphasis on the V‑4

Abstract

This article attempts to answer the following main research question: how three selected external economic shocks (the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, the COVID‑19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) might have influenced international trade in services between 2005 and 2024. Sixteen specific research questions have been formulated regarding such trade (global exports and imports, as well as the three most important types of service) on a global scale, with a particular focus on the Visegrad Group (V4) countries. The following research methods were applied: a literature review on economic shocks (including the author’s own classification of such shocks), source text analysis, logical inference, deductive reasoning, documentary and critical analysis methods, descriptive analysis and comparative analysis. Following the planned analyses, it was indicated which external shocks might have had the greatest impact on the trade in services (2 cases), and which might have had a high (6 cases), medium (15) or low (9) impact. Cases of no potential impact were also identified (16). The issues presented in this article represent an attempt to highlight key and significant areas for further analysis. In the author’s view, it contributes to the discussion on the development and determinants of international service trade, assuming further, progressive “servicization” on a global scale.