Spatio-temporal Analysis of the Market for New Personal Cars in Poland
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24917/20801653.313.5Keywords:
car market, car selling, motorisation level, Poland, spatio-temporal analysisAbstract
The purpose of the article is to offer a spatial and temporal analysis of the market for new cars in Poland using different methodological approaches and tools. It covers:
-general characteristics of the car market in Poland in its spatial and temporal dimensions;
-identification of the socio-economic conditions that affect the demand of individual consumers for new cars and their spatial differences; and
-distinguishing different types of the car demand variability in its spatial and temporal dimensions, as well as forecasting the future demand. Based on a literature review, the potential socio-economic conditions that might affect the car demand have been identified, and subsequently their role in the Polish circumstances has been defined with the use of econometric modelling. The model of multiple regression showed that the demand for new cars was stimulated by incomes of potential consumers and by a net in-migration, and depressed by the level of unemployment together with prices of complementary goods (especially petrol prices). Further analysis with geographically weighted regression (GWR) models revealed general spatial trends in the way that the identified conditions affected the demand for cars. Finally, the use of harmonic analysis allowed for the forecasting of the future car demand at the level of individual territorial units (poviats). The latter were categorised into four types according to their car demand variability.
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